The Chiefs couldn't have looked better last week on the road against the Texans, and now they come back home to host the Broncos on a short week. While the Broncos won 19-13 it really seems like this team lost, and we are getting roughly 4.5 points of value in the betting market after this game opened up at -1.5 Denver weeks ago. Peyton Manning is getting old and it's clear the offense is not the same juggernaut, but I'm still taking him over the Chiefs offense. People are forgetting how dominant the Broncos can be on defense, with arguably the best LB corp in the NFL.
Broncos have gone 15-10-1 ATS in their previous 26 meetings, people are solely looking at this game as the Broncos being in trouble, because of the offense, but I'm looking at this game as defense wins on the road, and this is value no matter what way you try to look at it. The Chiefs have not been a good team at Arrowhead for sometime going 24-39 SU, and 26-38 ATS in their last 64 games. If they are favored by a TD or less at home they have gone 3-16 ATS in their last 19, and even worse against a division opponent. People are still rushing to the ticket window to bet them here, and I can help, but see the value we have with a better or as good defense, and a better offense.
